Tech Trends 2024: How IT Leaders Are Navigating A Disruptive, Transformative World

Amid a disruptive social and tech world, IT leaders remain standoffish about some trends and bullish on others, according to revelations from MES Computing's latest survey of IT decision-makers.

In our latest tranche of industry research, MES Computing surveyed 75 U.S. IT leaders about some of the top trends in IT and business leadership.

These, of course, included generative AI, but we also asked about ESG, cyber resilience, application and platform consolidation as well as some more niche topics -- quantum computing, machine customers, and the augmented connected workforce. Those polled are part of the MES IT Leadership Network and comprise a representative sample of how IT leaders are thinking.

Their responses provided thought-provoking and sometimes surprising insight into how IT executives are planning their roadmaps amid emerging, disruptive technology and a turbulent geopolitical climate.

Each survey topic area is broken down into sections below.

MES Computing IT Leaders Tech Trends Survey 2024 Topics

• Generative AI
• ESG
• Consolidation
• Cyber Resilience
• Quantum Computing
• Augmented Connected Workforce
• Machine Customers
• Organizational Change

Generative AI

U.S. organizations are excited by the potential of generative AI but are cautious about using it for serious workloads.

Asked about their opinion of GenAI, the largest portion (43 percent) of IT professionals surveyed in February and March said it is promising but immature. Twenty-nine percent believe GenAI to be the most important innovation since the smartphone, more than twice the number who believe it to be the biggest bubble since the dot-com boom. Three percent described it as risky.

Thirty-three percent said they are currently using AI operationally, with a further 19 percent rolling out proofs of concept (PoCs). Meanwhile 29 percent were looking into it. Four percent ruled it out altogether.

Among those who said they are using GenAI in an organizational capacity, or implementing PoCs, ChatGPT (51 percent) was the comfortable frontrunner, followed by Microsoft/GitHub Copilots (23 percent) and Google Bard/Gemini (21 percent). Microsoft, a big investor in OpenAI, led in the cloud stakes too, with 36 percent saying they were using its Azure AI cloud services, compared to Google Cloud's 30 percent and AWS' 21 percent.

The wait-and-sees said they have no current use cases (15 percent), are waiting for some case studies relevant to their size and sector (18 percent) or lack expertise (18 percent).

Survey Results Reveal A Frothy AI Market

The GenAI market is changing fast. It's understandable that there is some uncertainty.

"Hackers are using AI to create false info and we're not ready to deploy due to immature state," said one IT leader.

Others feared it might be a solution looking for a problem.

"We are not convinced of the need or effectiveness of AI in our business at this point."

Still others mentioned a lack of capacity: "We have a business to run and money to make."

Even those who view GenAI as the "most important innovation since the smartphone," voiced concerns over its use to spread disinformation. More than 80 percent said they were concerned or considerably concerned about this, more than the cohort as a whole.

Early adopters were far more likely to be looking to restructure their CTO and/or CIO roles to make AI adoption easier, demonstrating they are serious about making the most of the opportunities on offer.

Some were raring to go but felt constrained by their operating environment: "Governance comes first!"

There were worries that AI will centralize even more power in the hands of the tech giants (30 percent thought this); that legislation and regulation will be unable to keep up (31 percent), and that GenAI services will be too expensive once they are no longer offered at below cost price (23 percent).

That said, the GenAI wave has a lot of momentum. Asked whether, given the massive AI hype, businesses might start to lose interest in 2024, 51 percent answered "yes," with 12 percent suspecting the bubble could burst before the end of 2024.

Their reasons? Privacy, bias and security concerns (55 percent); lack of transparency/mistrust (50 percent); the intensive computing requirements making AI cost prohibitive (44 percent); social and legal risks resulting from a rush to deploy (44 percent); and the prospect of more legal action (e.g. copyright) against AI companies (44 percent).

What Do IT Leaders Expect To See Coming From AI?

Asked what they expect to see more of this year, most pointed to areas that are already showing a lot of movement, such as AI assistants integrated into office suites and into data, analytics and development tools. AI that focuses on practical applications of users' own data came after.

Fewer thought we are entering the era of large action models, with LLMs able to use other tools in an agentic way, or small language models that can be run on a laptop, although both of these are starting to emerge.

"While large action models and autonomous consumer AI agents are intriguing possibilities, I believe advancements in personalization, user-centric applications, and accessibility will have a wider impact in 2024. As with any rapidly evolving field, surprises are always possible," said a senior leader in a technology company.

AI's Impact On Jobs

Generative AI will undoubtedly bring several changes to the workplace. Exactly what those will be and what impact they will have in the long term is the subject of a great deal of speculation.

In terms of use cases being considered by respondents' organizations, the top five were in employee/customer self-service; cyber security and incident management; business processes automation; AI/ML model development/deployment/experimentation; and back-office processes/customer support (RPA).

We also asked about the jobs that might be at risk from AI, and about positions that might be created in the next 12 months or so.

Far more IT leaders think AI will create jobs (48 percent) than believe it will replace them (7 percent) this year, although 46 percent were non-committal. For most, it's still too early to tell.

The 22 percent who said AI has already created jobs in their organization worked disproportionately in manufacturing, engineering, aerospace, automotive and construction. They mentioned new roles for security, data analysis, data science, software development and machine learning.

"I firmly believe AI will create jobs related to all things task automation," said an IT leader in technology. "Moreover, AI can automate routine and repetitive tasks, freeing up employees to focus on higher-level tasks that require creativity, critical thinking, and social skills. AI is driving innovation and creating new industries, such as autonomous vehicles and personalized medicine. These new industries will require diverse workforces with a range of skills, creating new job opportunities."

For others, it was a case of current jobs being augmented rather than new ones created.

AI will likely change the responsibilities of existing roles, as automation alters the services organizations can offer. And new AI-related jobs are appearing such as prompt engineers, customer experience managers, AI compliance officials and AI programmers.

Writing On The Wall For Customer-Facing Jobs?

Asked what roles might be under threat from AI in 2024, the majority answered "none" -- or at least "none at the moment."

"None at this time. In the future, service desk could be handled by AI to a point, but we will still need hands-on in several situations," said a CTO in distribution and transport.

However, almost half of our respondents mentioned roles or areas of work that are already diminishing in importance and could ultimately face the chop, the most frequent being help desk, service desk and customer support.

After customer-facing support roles, admin jobs were likely to be the next in line to be squeezed out by automation, followed by junior-level coding and engineering positions, respondents said.

A similar number felt that marketing people and those involved in clerical tasks and creative writing could see reductions this year or soon afterward. Writing boilerplate text and messaging is certainly something that LLM-based applications can already do proficiently with little hand holding, and sifting through columns of data is another obvious candidate for mechanization.

"Any and all repetitive tasks will be under the gun, in my opinion. More specifically, AI excels at automating repetitive and rule-based tasks," said an IT manager in technology.

While AI is moving extremely quickly in terms of capabilities and product releases, this has yet to translate to real impact in terms of the way people do their jobs, an exception perhaps being software development. In a year's time, that picture could look rather different, though.

Tech Trends 2024: How IT Leaders Are Navigating A Disruptive, Transformative World

Amid a disruptive social and tech world, IT leaders remain standoffish about some trends and bullish on others, according to revelations from MES Computing's latest survey of IT decision-makers.

ESG

Despite having been dragged into the culture wars, Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards remain an important consideration for businesses, if for no other reason that they remain an important consideration for investors.

However, our research suggests there are other reasons that tech decision-makers are making buying decisions with sustainability, if not at the top of their priority list, certainly in the top three criteria.

When asked what was driving ESG within their businesses, more than one-third (34 percent) of IT leaders cited a simple motivation to do the right thing. But more (41 percent) had an eye on cost savings (which ties in with a waste-reduction strategy), while matching up to industry best practice was the third most popular driver (31 percent).

This suggests that industry standards matter and are an effective way of encouraging individual organizations to raise the bar.

"We need clearly defined sustainability goals," said a CISO in a business and professional services company.

More interesting is how far down the list of responses both legislation and industry-specific regulations are, suggesting that individual organizations, and individuals, are well ahead of legislators and regulators in the sustainability standards they set.

Sustainability Matters

It's also clear that organizations are taking plenty of measures to reduce their environmental impact. Almost half -- 45 percent -- are assessing all new suppliers and contracts against sustainability criteria, and 40 percent are reviewing and analyzing processes to see how they can be made more sustainable. Almost as many (38 percent) were in the market for new tech to enable them to reduce their operational footprint. Despite an emphasis on reducing costs, waste reduction was seen as a priority by fewer respondents (35 percent).

Twenty percent of the leaders surveyed told us that when choosing suppliers, sustainability matters more than costs. For 30 percent, the two imperatives carried equal weight, but for the remainder, cost was the most important consideration.

The Sustainability Solutions IT Decision-Makers Want

Companies are looking closely at datacenter technology , and also at AI-powered tools to help them analyze data in this complex area.

Other popular solutions included a shift to renewable energy, and water and energy reductions initiatives -- again, measures that could save money -- as well as supply chain optimization. The sheer range of solutions reflects the variety in the types of organizations represented in our research, with shifts to electric and hydrogen vehicles, battery tech and digital twins all making an appearance.

AI technologies are already demonstrating immense potential to reduce the impact of the foundational industries, and consequently, to reduce built carbon emissions and find smarter, less damaging ways of either cooling or heating buildings.

What do buyers, looking for these solutions, want from partners and suppliers? Concise data and transparency, according to some respondents:

• "More focus with providing sustainability data for downstream measurement tracking," COO, Technology
• "Transparency on materials/distribution to contribute to Scope 3 collaboration," CIO, Technology
• "Offer sustainable options when quoting projects," senior IT, Finance

Some answers suggested the desire for a standard or trust mark like B Corp. Others suggested the need for data in a form that was comparable to that of competitors, and some sort of industry standardization.

For the providers of more physical products there was also a need for better product repairability, lifecycle data, disposal cost data and similar. Others required more collaboration, better response to feedback and proof that they are moving in the right direction.

Tech Trends 2024: How IT Leaders Are Navigating A Disruptive, Transformative World

Amid a disruptive social and tech world, IT leaders remain standoffish about some trends and bullish on others, according to revelations from MES Computing's latest survey of IT decision-makers.

Consolidating Platforms And Applications

Platforms and enterprise applications can spread over time, sprouting new outposts and accreting new modules. And the longer an organization has been around, the more likely it is to contain multiple solutions that do more or less the same thing, as well as legacy infrastructure that's still there "just in case," or perhaps because no one quite knows what to do with it.

The systemic shocks of recent times have led businesses to add new platforms -- for example, to get through remote working challenges, but subsequent price rises have led some to rue the size and complexity of their IT estate. Unsurprisingly, consolidating platforms and applications has become a priority.

Thirty-five percent of the IT leaders polled said that reducing the number of applications was "something they'd be doing more of in 2024." Twenty percent said the same of their platforms.

The main driver for consolidation was operational efficiency; reducing the need to manage multiple standalone systems, as well as saving time and resources. It can also help to eliminate functional silos, purge out-of-date and duplicated data, and, by simplifying the technology stack, make it easier for teams to collaborate and share information.

Just below that came cost efficiency. Many prices have increased at above-inflationary rates in the last couple of years, at a time when all costs were rising sharply.

Another important driver is enhanced security. Each new application or platform represents another attack surface, with the added complexity of running multiple tools acting as a force multiplier. Tool sprawl is also a problem within security with data from the Ponemon Institute showing 30 percent of organizations using more than 50 unique cybersecurity products.

"We're consolidating compliance and risk management, vulnerability scanning and reporting, MDR and SIEM," said one IT leader.

So, consolidating platforms and applications makes a lot of sense. The trouble is, it is difficult, requires long-term planning and leadership, and can cause disruption. A shortage of necessary skills (cited by 50 percent), the need for investment (49 percent) and security concerns (45 percent) were the main impediments to consolidation efforts.

Tech Trends 2024: How IT Leaders Are Navigating A Disruptive, Transformative World

Amid a disruptive social and tech world, IT leaders remain standoffish about some trends and bullish on others, according to revelations from MES Computing's latest survey of IT decision-makers.

Cyber Resilience

Cyber resilience, a combination of business continuity, IT security and organizational resilience, goes beyond cyber security. It is designed to bolster an organization's defenses so damage from a cyber attack -- which now is a case of when rather than if -- can be minimized.

As such, a cyber resilience strategy includes disaster recovery and continuity measures. These might include disaster recovery locations, remote working to ensure businesses can function when staff can't get to central locations, and other frameworks that go beyond cyber.

Since time is of the essence, cyber resilience strategies contain a strong element of automation through machine learning, integrated frameworks that combine security measures with continuity protocols, PR and training.

In terms of non-cyber risks, the top three mentioned were global political instability, inflationary pressures, skills shortages and regulatory changes.

Cyber Threats

Asked about the types of novel cyber threats they were most concerned about; the top one has only risen up the agenda very recently: voice and image theft for production of deep fakes for phishing and scams. There was also concern about AI-enabled misinformation and disinformation (34 percent) and mal-information (information based on reality but which is weaponized to inflict harm on a person, organization or country; 28 percent).

Respondents mentioned concerns about existing dangers becoming worse. Top of these were an escalation of ransomware attacks (30 percent). This could mean new threat actors, new malware strains or new tactics by cyber gangs, such as a widening of the affiliation model.

Supply chain attacks (23 percent) were another cause for concern. Supply chain attacks are extremely hard to defend against as they come through an organization's partners or the software it uses. Related to this, 28 percent said they were concerned about IoT attacks launched via the ever-increasing number of connected devices.

A focus on cyber resilience was the main defensive strategy chosen (33 percent), closely followed by an emphasis on communicating risk to employees and mandating multi-factor authentication (MFA).

Zero-trust network access (ZTNA) was the most widely mentioned technical solution. ZTNA assumes the threat actor is already within the walls.

A few were sufficiently worried about quantum computers as to be considering replacing vulnerable cryptosystems such as RSA and elliptic curve.

Tech Trends 2024: How IT Leaders Are Navigating A Disruptive, Transformative World

Amid a disruptive social and tech world, IT leaders remain standoffish about some trends and bullish on others, according to revelations from MES Computing's latest survey of IT decision-makers.

Quantum Computing

In fact, Gartner added crypto-agility, post-quantum cryptography and quantum key distribution to its data security hype cycle last year.

If one were to arrive tomorrow, a computer that could crack commonly used public key encryption would have an almost unimaginable impact, but protecting against that eventuality is not yet a priority. For most, it seems too far in the future.

The wind has gone out of quantum computing's sails somewhat over the past year. Nineteen percent of respondents predicted mergers or failures of the numerous startups operating in this space.

Gartner also removed quantum computing from its 2024 Top 10 Strategic Technologies report, an indication that timescales to develop practical devices are proving longer than previously thought.

Eight percent believe useful applications are at least a decade away, while 60 percent said useful applications will arrive later than we were led to believe.

Quantum computers already exist, of course; the machines used by the likes of IBM and Google to offer quantum-computing-as-a-service, and the quantum annealing devices by DWave that can be applied to certain optimization problems, are examples. But the present-day capabilities are too narrow and the software stack far too limited for these to be considered general purpose or even highly specialized machines.

However, a lot of money is being pumped into R&D by tech companies and governments alike. And computers are not the only game in town. Quantum sensing is advancing steadily as is the unhackable quantum internet.

Keep the faith, said 18 percent -- when it arrives, quantum computing will be a true game changer.

Tech Trends 2024: How IT Leaders Are Navigating A Disruptive, Transformative World

Amid a disruptive social and tech world, IT leaders remain standoffish about some trends and bullish on others, according to revelations from MES Computing's latest survey of IT decision-makers.

The Augmented Connected Workforce

The augmented connected workforce combines technologies including augmented reality (AR), mixed reality (MR), computer vision, IoT, AI, digital twins and robotics to increase workplace productivity. Proponents say it will boost employees' capabilities, improve collaboration, enhance training, and increase safety and accessibility by blending human and digital skills.

The augmented connected workforce has recently been in the spotlight with the release of VR devices such as Apple's Vision Pro headset.

As a concept, the augmented connected workforce is not particularly well-defined. Nevertheless, 20 percent of our respondents said they already have use cases in play, with a further 22 percent investigating.

The primary driver was "creating a more efficient, collaborative and adaptable workplace" (mentioned by 56 percent) followed by the potential from "blending human and digital skills" (44 percent).

The main use cases mentioned were connecting remote work environments; training and skill development; and creating a more efficient, collaborative and adaptable workplace.

A sample of the specific use cases mentioned by our respondents are detailed below.

What are you doing / looking to do with augmented connected workforce solutions?

• Build into either service design and/or supporting customer support
• Provide on-the-job guidance and instructions through AR overlays
• Create interactive training simulations that mimic real-world scenarios
• Enable remote assistance from experts through live video and AR annotations
• Help boost productivity and efficiency in facilitating access to critical information and hands-free documents
• Optimize workflows with real-time data and performance insights
• Automate repetitive tasks and manual data collection
• Enhance safety and compliance
• Improve training, reduce costs
• Solutions aligned with customer verticals
• Training and education to improve performance
• Have a seamless integration and work from anywhere capabilities

Tech Trends 2024: How IT Leaders Are Navigating A Disruptive, Transformative World

Amid a disruptive social and tech world, IT leaders remain standoffish about some trends and bullish on others, according to revelations from MES Computing's latest survey of IT decision-makers.

Machine Customers

A machine customer is a non-human economic actor empowered to buy goods or services autonomously. Unlike traditional automated systems, machine customers do not follow predefined rules. Instead, they use machine learning to adapt their behavior according to prevailing conditions and modify their actions over time.

The market is growing fast. According to Gartner, 30 percent of large companies will have a "dedicated business unit or sales channels to access machine customer markets" by the end of 2026.

Among the MES Computing readership, 28 percent said they are catering for machine customers and provided some use cases:

• Printer/MFD levels to the supplier under contact to supply toner
• Password resets
• Software that enables automation and integration to business digital transactions.

The augmented connected workforce and machine customers fall under the automation category, which is underpinned by massive amounts of data, machine learning and sensor networks. In this category, preventative maintenance and the industrial IoT were most likely to be pursued by respondents this year.

Tech Trends 2024: How IT Leaders Are Navigating A Disruptive, Transformative World

Amid a disruptive social and tech world, IT leaders remain standoffish about some trends and bullish on others, according to revelations from MES Computing's latest survey of IT decision-makers.

Organizational Changes

Navigating the waves of societal, political and technological change, organizations are mainly doing more of the same in 2024. There will generally be an increased focus on DEI and ESG; there will be new regulations to negotiate, some of which could impose costs this year. Most IT leaders believe AI will create more jobs than it destroys; and 23 percent predict employee activism in the shape of unionization.

Perhaps the biggest change will be preparing for AI, with 32 percent saying a member of the board will be given specific responsibility for managing the technology.

About the research

MES Computing polled 75 senior U.S. IT leaders across all sizes and sectors in February and March 2024 about current tech trends including AI, sustainability, application and platform consolidation, cyber resilience and quantum computing.

Penny Horwood is the author of the ESG section.